Implied Volatility
Implied volatility is the market's forecast of likely future volatility, derived by backing out volatility from an option's market price using pricing models like Black-Scholes.
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Definition
Implied volatility is the market's forecast of likely future volatility, derived by backing out volatility from an option's market price using pricing models like Black-Scholes.
Use case
Used in derivatives workflows, analysis, and technical interviews.
Judgment check
Useful only when the assumptions and inputs behind the metric are understood.
Deep dive
How to think about Implied Volatility
Unlike historical volatility (backward-looking), implied volatility is forward-looking. The Volatility Smile shows implied volatilities across strikes — typically higher for out-of-the-money puts (crash protection demand) and sometimes calls. VIX index measures 30-day implied volatility of S&P 500 options, often called the 'fear gauge.'
Example: Ahead of earnings, a stock's implied volatility often rises to 50-100% as uncertainty peaks. Post-earnings, 'vol crush' occurs as uncertainty resolves — implied volatility may drop to 30%, hurting long option positions even if the stock moves favorably.